MLB DFS: Brewers, Astros Top Optimal Stacks for Friday
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STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Brewers, Astros
The Milwaukee Brewers get tonight’s crown as the top optimal stack on our board as they go up against Robbert Dugger and the Cincinnati Reds. The Brew Crew has been raking at the plate lately as they rank in the top two in wOBA and wRC+ and fourth in ISO over the past two weeks. Their strikeout rate has dropped to nearly the 20% mark, and they have walked at the highest rate in baseball over the same stretch.
Dugger has spent most of his time in Triple-A this season and was nothing special, with an ERA approaching 4.00 and a strikeout rate that did not even eclipse 20%. Three to four innings on the mound seems like the absolute maximum for Dugger. Then we’ll see a collection of subpar bullpen arms the rest of the way. The Reds might have the worst bullpen in baseball as they have the worst ERA and have given up the most earned runs among all 30 relief crews. The Brewers seem to be in a great position to continue their streak, and we do not expect them to be overly owned, producing a stack with immense upside.
The Houston Astros’ stack joins the Brewers near the top of the optimal board ahead of their matchup against Hunter Gaddis and the Cleveland Guardians. Tonight will be Gaddis’ MLB debut, and over 14 starts in Double-A, Gaddis compiled a 4.24 ERA with solid strikeout production. He performed decently over two outings in Triple-A. The strikeout production is promising, but we know how difficult it is to predict strikeout translation for a relatively unknown player.
Unfortunately for Gaddis, the Houston Astros are one of the last teams you want to see on the schedule for your debut, so he’ll have his hands full. The Astros have ranked in the top five in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ for the season and have remained in the top ten over the past two weeks, showing no inkling of a slump. This stack will be priced fairly to what we have seen in the past, and we do not project it to be overly owned, so the value certainly is present for this dominant offense against a pitcher who should be shaking in his boots.