Patriots-Packers: Spread, Moneyline, Total Game Picks
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are set to welcome Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots to Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon.
New England Patriots (+360) vs. Green Bay Packers (-460) Total: 39.5 (O-114, U-106)
Even after a disappointing Week 1 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings, the Green Bay Packers have responded with two straight victories over the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rodgers and company have taken some time to adjust on offense, with his favorite target no longer suiting up for the green and gold. There hasn’t really been one receiver that’s stood out yet in terms of targets, but there’s certainly been more trust in rookie wideout Romeo Doubs. Last week against the Bucs, Doubs recorded eight catches for 73 yards and a touchdown, which is encouraging in terms of someone emerging in their wide receiver room.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones was injured in the team’s Week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens and has officially been ruled out for Sunday, meaning they’ll turn to veteran signal-caller Brian Hoyer. That doesn’t spell good news for the Patriots with their hopes of winning this football game, meaning the Packers’ defense will likely have a heavy emphasis on stacking the box to stop New England’s two-headed ground attack. There’s no doubt that Hoyer is a safe backup option and likely won’t make critical mistakes, but this Packers defense is ferocious. It should give him little time in the pocket to find success, meaning it should be a long afternoon for New England, potentially on both sides of the ball.
You can never count out Belichick and company, but this New England team looks disjointed, especially on defense right now, and the Packers should be able to take full advantage of that on their home field. Looking at where the tickets and money have gone to this point, the Packers have seen 54% of tickets and 53% of the handle head in their direction for the spread, which has them as 9.5-point home favorites. There’s no real value in their current moneyline price of -460, which has equated to the Pack attracting 48% of bets, but 80% of the handle. That number makes sense due to the large amount of money you’d have to place on Green Bay to profit anything of value. With that, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Patriots can keep up with the Packers offensively, meaning targeting Green Bay to cover the 9.5 points is where the potential value in this game is at.
Best Bet: Packers -9.5 (-110)
It’s not difficult to see the Packers’ offense picking apart the Patriots on defense. Whether that involves a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, or a mix of play action and Rodgers getting more acclimated with his receivers, the Packers should have no problem scoring in this contest. The same certainly can’t be said for New England, who’s going up against a Green Bay team that’s held the Bears and Bucs to just 22 points over the last pair of weeks.
The total is currently set at just 39.5, which also has the Packers team total set at 24.5. The Packers should find a way to eclipse that number and utilize a lot of the clock, leaving the Patriots’ offense in a bad spot to play from behind. The tickets and money have been mainly siding with the under here, too, as 76% of bets and 81% of the handle are gravitating that way. It’s hard to blame bettors for having that mentality here, which should see the Packers win this game by multiple scores, but still fall under the overall total.
Best Bet: Under 39.5 (-106)
Game Pick: Packers 27, Patriots 10