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01:16 PM, January 23, 2023

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles: Matchups & ATS Trends

author-icon Paul Connor

The top two seeds will square off in this year’s NFC Championship Game as the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers. 

Philadelphia steamrolled the New York Giants in the Divisional Round, rushing for 268 yards en route to an easy 38-7 victory. 

Things were a little tougher for the 49ers in their Divisional Round clash with the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco coming away with a hard-fought 19-12 win to advance to its third NFC title game in the last four years.

In what should be a highly competitive affair, let’s look at some key matchups and ATS trends courtesy of My Inside Edge.

Matchups Contrasts

49ers Favor:

  • Miles Sanders (PHI) averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in the last four weeks of the regular season — third-worst of Qualified Running Backs. The 49ers allowed just 3.5 yards per carry in the last four weeks of the regular season — tied for second-best in NFL.
  • The 49ers have gone three and out on 9.1% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — third-best in NFL. Eagles have forced three and outs on 6.1% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL.
  • Brock Purdy (SF) had a 115.9 passer rating in the last four weeks of the regular season — best of Qualified Quarterbacks. The Eagles allowed a passer rating of 100.4 in the last four weeks of the regular season — third-worst in NFL.

Eagles Favor:

  • DeVonta Smith (PHI) had 29 receptions in four games (7.2 per game) in the last four weeks of the regular season — tied for fourth-best of Qualified Wide Receivers. The 49ers allowed 24.8 receptions per game in the last four weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst in NFL.
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI) averaged 8.7 yards per attempt in the last four weeks of the regular season — second-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. The 49ers allowed 7.5 yards per dropback in the last four weeks of the regular season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
  • A.J. Brown (PHI) averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game in the last four weeks of the regular season — third-best of Qualified Wide Receivers. The 49ers allowed an average of 26.9 fantasy points per game to WRs in the last four weeks of the regular season — fifth-worst in NFL.

ATS Trends

49ers:

  • The 49ers are 7-2 (.778) against the spread at home this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .481.
  • The 49ers were undefeated (5-0) against the spread at home in the last eight weeks of the regular season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .483.
  • The 49ers are 4-2 (.667) against the spread vs top 10 pass offenses this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL; League Avg: .482.
  • The 49ers are 4-2 (.667) against the spread vs bottom ten run offenses this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
  • The 49ers are 3-1 (.750) against the spread vs top ten run defenses this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL; League Avg: .476.

Eagles:

  • The Eagles are 6-3 (.667) against the spread at home this season — tied for third-best in NFL; League Avg: .481.
  • The Eagles are 9-7 (.529) against the spread at home since the 2021 season — tied for sixth-best in NFL; League Avg: .479.
  • The Eagles are 14-9-1 (.583) against the spread at home since the 2020 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL; League Avg: .486.
  • The Eagles are 7-4 (.636) against the spread when getting 6 or more points since the 2020 season — eighth-best in NFL; League Avg: .513.