UFC Vegas 57: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot Betting Guide

Tyler Mason

The main event features a top 15 UFC lightweight bout between Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan and Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot. Tsarukyan has won his past five UFC fights and his past two by TKO. His only UFC loss was his debut against Islam Makhachev. Gamrot has won his past three UFC fights by finishing with two knockouts and one submission. His only UFC loss was also in his debut, a split decision to Guram Kutateladze.

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot Fight Details

LW – #11 Arman Tsarukyan (18-2-0) vs. LW – #12 Mateusz Gamrot (20-1-0, 1 NC)

Date: Saturday, June 25, 2022 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET

Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN2

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds

Odds to Win: Tsarukyan -300 | Gamrot +230

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ +150 | Submission +325 | Decision -110

Will the fight go the distance? Yes -110 | No -125

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot Analysis

Tsarukyan could easily be a future champion in the lightweight division. Although he lost his debut to Makhachev, Tsarukyan was 22 years old at the time, and many consider Makhachev the best fighter in the division. Tsarukyan has run through some solid UFC competition in Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, Christos Giagos, and Joel Alvarez. Of those, Ramos is a former ADCC champion (essentially the submission wrestling Olympics), and Tsarukyan out grappled him.

Meanwhile, Gamrot has had a more successful UFC run regarding finishes. He’s ended Carlos Diego Ferreira with a knee to the body, knocked out Scott Holtzmann, and submitted Jeremy Stephens. Gamrot was a two-division champion in Poland’s KSW, winning both the lightweight and featherweight titles. He’s also a four-time medalist, with two gold, at the ADCC European Championship.

Gamrot will be the taller fighter by three inches, but Tsarukyan will have a two-inch reach advantage. Gamrot is skilled at using level changes to set up his striking while also looking for a shot. However, Tsarukyan is explosive and will be the faster fighter on the feet. They both win by KO/TKO at similar rates, Tsarukyan at 39 percent and Gamrot at 35 percent. The same can be said for their submission win rates, Tsarukyan is at 28 percent and Gamrot at 25 percent. Despite having a more fast-twitch-muscle style, Tsarukyan spends more time in the cage on average at 11:31 than Gamrot’s 7:43. Gamer averages 0.27 more knockdowns per 15 minutes, but on the eye test, I wouldn’t necessarily give him the power advantage.

Almost every statistic with these two guys is similar. Regarding significant strikes, Tsarukyan lands 3.75 per minute, while Gamrot lands 3.79. They both have defense ratings in the 60 percentile. However, Gamrot absorbs 1.33 more significant strikes per minute. Gamer is slightly better in the takedown department, averaging 2.36 more takedowns per minute. Tsarukyan has a 70 percent takedown defense rating, but Gamrot’s is perfect.

Everything on paper points to this fight being much closer than the book’s have it, but Tsarukyan looks like he has a significant speed advantage. If I had to choose a winner, Tsarukyan coming out on top seems like the most likely outcome. However, a straight-up win by Tsarukyan only pays -300. Improving the payout by taking Tsarukyan by decision at +150 is our best option outside of taking Gamrot as an outright dog, with a much higher payout, at +230.